CPI inflation goes up to 10.2% y/y in June
Poland's consumer price index rose 0.8% in June compared to the previous month and 10.2% from a year ago, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) reported. The price growth was slightly faster than expected by the market, following a 0.7% and 10.0% rise recorded in May. In June the price of goods increased 0.8%, foodstuffs grew 0.6% and services 0.7% compared to May. There was no seasonal effect of cheaper food, though fruit and vegetable prices fell down 8.3% and 7.1% respectively. The main reason for that was a price hike for cereals and bread linked to lower crops after drought in the spring. CPI index will probably go up higher in July to 10.6%, according to ING Barings. However, the monthly inflation will slow down to 0.2%. Analysts do not see a big chance for an interest rate increase, though the inflation target of 5.4%-6.8% for year-end seems impossible to meet. Most economic institutes revised their forecasts upwards and now estimate the year-on-year CPI to reach 7%-7.8% in December. BRE Bank expects that next year's inflation target would be set between 4.5%-6.5%. Its analysts say that current restrictiveness of the monetary policy should be sufficient to achieve that aim. They add that the Monetary Policy Council will not raise rates to curb inflation, as the economy growth would suffer too much.
Źródło:IntelliNews Daily
