GDP growth expected to decelerate in Q3
The Central Statistical Office (GUS) estimated that Poland's GDP grew at the slowest pace this year in Q3, as the economy faced high levels of unemployment, inflation, and current account deficit. In Q2, GDP went up 5.2% against 6% in Q1, and 3% in Q2 of 1999. According to forecasts of the economy ministry and independent institutes, GDP is slated to grow by about 5% in 2000. GUS said that industry was the main driving force behind the growth: industrial output went up 8.9% in the period Jan-Sep, against 1.9% in the corresponding period of 1999. GUS warned, however, that high unemployment, which reached 14.0% in September, up from 13% in Dec 1999, continues to be a problem. Also inflation, although it fell to 10.3% in September from 10.7% in August, and is expected to go down further in the consecutive months to stand at about 9% at the end of the year, is still too high, according to GUS's deputy head Janusz Witkowski. On the other hand, Witkowski said, the balance of payment deficit seems to have stabilised. According to the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), the CA deficit stood at 7.7% of GDP in August. At the same time, presidential economic adviser Marek Belka warned that the Polish economy faced a deeper and longer slowdown of the growth than the analysts expect. Belka, who is among the possible candidates to replace Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz as head of Poland's central bank, added that a few percentage point depreciation of the zloty would not be bad for the economy. According to Belka, the zloty could weaken further in coming months amid worries over Poland's economic performance, but there is little risk of a full-fledged currency crisis.
Źródło:IntelliNews Daily
