GDP data for Q4 to be released today

Today, the Central Statistical Office (GUS) is to release the GDP data for the final quarter of 2001. Analysts expect that, considering annual figures released by GUS three months ago, the figure for Q4 should stand at around 0.5% y/y, compared to 0.8% recorded in Q3. In the whole year, Poland's economy grew by a mere 1.1%, as compared to 4% in 2000. The slowdown resulted from weakening domestic demand and investment. Analysts at UBS Warburg estimated that domestic demand fell by 2.7% y/y in Q4, after falling 2.0% y/y in Q3, while investment slumped 20.1% in Q4, after declining by 13.6% in Q3. Economists agree that any rebound should not be expected before the second half of this year. They expect a 1% growth for the whole 2002. kp,bb