of the past. There are some, however, who see Poland‘s plentiful supply of coal as not only a solution to energy security worries in the short term, but also as a long-term answer to the need for more environmentally friendly production. With the diminishing availability of energy resources and advances in technologies that help reduce coal‘s impact on the environment, this controversial resource may offer the best option for fueling Poland‘s future.
Energy - its production, supply and conservation - is quickly becoming the European Union‘s most urgent issue. By 2030 the bloc‘s demand for energy will have grown by 50 percent. This year, the EU‘s dependence on external suppliers may increase from the present 50 percent to 65 percent of its energy resources, according to the European Commission. „The European Union is perhaps the most exposed part of the world to the energy-supply [problem],” said Andris Piebalgs, EU Commissioner for Energy during the „Energy Policy for Europe” debate held by the Economic Forum in Warsaw last week.
In January this year, the European Commission adopted a package of measures outlining the bloc‘s energy strategy. Among other things, the strategy stresses the needs for greater independence from external suppliers, lower production costs, greater competitiveness and reduction of CO2 emissions. „We want to have concrete solutions,” stressed Piebalgs. „The challenges we are facing are global, not local.”
Diversification dilemma
For Poland, energy is a growing challenge too, primarily when it comes to the security of its supplies. „We are dependent on external energy resources and feel threatened. Still, there are no instruments that would secure the country from gaps in the energy supply,” the Minister of Economy, Piotr Wo�niak explained. In the view of Bogusław Sonik, a Member of the European Parliament, EU energy security is threatened by the tendency to think in national rather than global terms, the weak political position of the new EU members, and the lack of clearly specified competences and responsibilities for an energy-sector strategy in EU structures.
One of the most important goals for the Polish energy sector is the diversification of its sources. More than 90 percent of Poland‘s electrical energy is produced from coal, due to its natural abundance in the country, with 40 percent of that coming from lignite and 60 percent from hard coal. Poland produces more coal each year than all the other EU countries put together.
Few options
According to the RWE Group‘s World Energy Report 2005, over half of the EU‘s electricity comes from fossil fuels, mainly coal, which generates almost a third of its electricity. The consumption of coal is decreasing, however. In 1978, the EU 25 countries (excluding Bulgaria and Romania) used 436 million tonnes of coal. By 2004, despite a rise in energy consumed, coal consumption in these countries had fallen to 307 million tonnes.
EU officials, the Polish government and other experts all say that Poland should also be reducing its dependence on coal and pursue a diversification of resources, both for reasons of greater economic security as well as ecological well-being. However, it appears that no radical changes will happen overnight.
A very attractive solution seems to lie in atomic energy. However, Jerzy Buzek, a former Polish Prime Minister and present MEP, stressed that although he supports turning to nuclear energy, the results of this undertaking could be 17 years in the coming. Minister Wo�niak added that to pursue nuclear energy, Poland would have to completely rebuild its nuclear-research infrastructure.
In making a case against heavily diversifying through natural gas, the Economy Minister pointed out the high cost of investment and lack of proper pipeline infrastructure. The prospect of radically increasing the use of renewable energy resources appears rather remote as well.
Thus, Poland‘s reliance on coal over the next decade is not expected to decrease significantly. Moreover, some experts claim that the coal industry may still offer very attractive opportunities for Polish energy.
Coming clean
The RWE Group report points out substantial advantages of coal over other energy sources, such as its price, which is more resistant to economic shocks than that of oil and gas. Furthermore, coal reserves are the largest, worldwide, of any fossil fuel and, at the present rate of consumption, the world‘s black-coal reserves could last 160 years, while lignite reserves might last up to 270 years. For Poland specifically, coal also guarantees greater independence from external suppliers.
Of course, when it comes to the use of coal, the question of pollution remains. „In ten years‘ time we will not be able to use coal the way we do now,” said Jerzy Buzek, referring to the European Commission‘s directives concerning environmental policy. The EU wants to reduce CO2 emissions by 20 percent by 2020 and by 60-80 percent by 2050. „Without clean coal � the most pessimistic scenarios regarding global warming put forward by scientists look practically certain to occur,” Piebalgs said.
„Clean coal” technologies are cited by advocates of coal, who say that the resource does not have to pose a great threat to the environment. They see particular promise in „sustainable” coal technologies, which involve the concept of CO2 capture and storage (CCS), also referred to as carbon sequestration. This aims at neutralizing - or at least reducing - coal‘s effects on the environment. According to the European Commission report „Sustainable power generation from fossil fuels: aiming for near-zero emissions from coal after 2020,” these technologies can reduce the CO2 emissions from coal-based power generation by up to 20 percent by 2020.
At present, clean-coal processes increase the cost of coal energy production by up to 80 percent. At the current level of technology, CO2 capture and storage costs up to X70 (zł.274) per tonne of CO2. However, major technological improvements in the coming years are expected to reduce the costs of CCS to EUR 20-30 (zł.78-117) per tonne of CO2 sequestered, making coal-fired power generation only 10-percent more expensive than it is currently. The technologies are also expected to eliminate up to 90 percent of the carbon emissions from power plants using fossil fuels. In fact, the Commission declared funding research and development for coal-powered energy production and the demonstration of sustainable fossil-fuel technologies as priorities for 2007-2013.
Mixed reviews
Dr Barbara Tora from the AGH University of Science and Technology in Kraków is enthusiastic about the future of lignite and hard coal. „Certainly, this is a good solution,” she claimed. „We have large resources. Moreover, the newest technologies for coal processing make this form of energy really safe for the environment.” Tora admitted, however, that in the long run Poland definitely should pursue other energy solutions, with a focus on nuclear power plants.
Not everyone shares the enthusiasm for coal, though. „Talking about coal usage being ecological is ridiculous,” Piotr Krzeczkowski, the chairman of the Polish Union of Renewable Energy and Environment Protection Sector Employers told WBJ. But, he admitted that the prospect of turning to renewable sources is still distant, saying that there is a lack of proper support on the part of the authorities and no long-term strategy for such solutions. Krzeczkowski sees a chance for the future of renewable resources at a local level, but admits that, under the circumstances, development of this form of energy will be difficult.
The idea of coal sequestration does not appeal to environmental organizations either. For Magdalena Zowsik from Greenpeace, discussion on the future of fossil fuels and nuclear energy is futile. „Nobody has proved that CO2, even if sequestered, can be stored safely. Besides, proper installations for such storage will be created no sooner than in 2020,” she argued.
Meanwhile, there is no time to waste on coal research, especially since Poland already has more access to renewable-energy technologies. According to a study written by the European Renewable Energy Council and Greenpeace, by 2050, nearly 50 percent of the world‘s demand for energy could be met using renewable energy resources. But as Zowsik stressed, this will not happen without effort from the authorities. „The coal lobby is very active, and Polish authorities are reluctant to introduce radical changes,” she said, adding that at the current pace of reform, a significant reduction of CO2 emissions in Poland will be nearly impossible.
As the largest coal producer in Europe by far, Poland‘s sizable domestic reserves give it a degree of energy security that is the envy of other EU nations. While many now consider coal to be an out-dated industry, responsible for huge CO2 emissions, others see it as a vast potential source of much cleaner energy, once the technology is in place. Either way, the outcome of the debate will determine the future of Poland‘s energy supply.
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