Zloty falls, the bourse plunges after attacks in US
MACROECONOMIC NEWS Foreign investors, withdrawing from all emerging markets in reaction to terrorist attacks in the United States, sent the Polish stocks and the zloty down. The zloty fell 2% to the US dollar, which also lost 2% against the basket of the other major currencies. The zloty closed at PLN/USD 4.2475 and PLN/EUR 3.8647, against PLN/USD 4.2132 and PLN/EUR 3.7883 before the news came from the US. Share prices also fell, but the bourse's reaction to the tragedy was relatively calm. The key WIG 20 index fell 33 points in the last hour of trading, ending the session at 1,115.4, or 2.8% down from Tuesday. The all-share WIG dropped only 2%. The Warsaw Stock Exchange's authorities decided that the trade would be resumed normally today. The tragedy has caused the oil prices go up, which will result in increases of petrol prices in Poland as well - possibly to PLN 4 per litre from the current level of PLN 3.2-3.3 per litre. Although analysts were cautious in their comments on the tragedy's possible effects on the Polish markets, some, like Janusz Jankowiak at BRE Bank, believe the consequences might be very serious as the Polish economy is closely following the events in the US. According to the economists quoted in today's press reports, it is still hard to estimate how the situation in the US could influence the Polish economy. One of the first visible effect will be a rise of the insurance policy prices. According to Tomasz Mintofta-Czyz, President of the Polish Insurance Brokers Association, the Polish insurers operating on international markets will be the hit the hardest. According to Dariusz Rosati, a member of the Monetary Policy Council (RPP), some inflationary impulses might result of an increase in oil prices, but in his opinion, huge oil reserves will help to keep the balance on the market. According to a pessimistic scenario presented by DG Bank's analysts, the depression on the stock markets will be so deep that its would lead to recession and would cool down economies around the world. This might delay the process of admitting new members by the European Union. According to Stanislaw Gomulka of the London School of Economics, it is too early to make any catastrophic projections, although a crisis on the energy markets in case Middle East terrorists and temporary isolation of the USA cannot be ruled out. The crisis might then hit Europe and Japan. kp,bb
Źródło:IntelliNews Daily
