Russia rebound to continue for rest of the year

ussia’s auto association is bullish about the rest of the 2010 following another big gain in new-car sales last month.

“September again demonstrated a fast-recovering automotive market,” David Thomas, chairman of the Association of European Businesses’s auto manufacturers committee, said in a statement. “With year-to-date growth of 18 percent, up from the 14 percent rate in August, we are seeing all the signs of a strong finish to 2010.”

Sales of new passenger vehicles in Russia surged another 55 percent in September over a year earlier as buyers continued to cash in on a $1.1 billion government incentives program to get older cars off the road and into scrap yards.

September’s gain of 66,313 units, which followed a 51 percent jump in August, brings sales for the first three quarters of the year to 1,321,027 million units, up 18 percent from the same period a year earlier. According to the AEB in Moscow, which reports the data, the strong gains keep the market on track to easily surpass last year’s recession-battered performance of 1,465,917 units.

Earlier this year, as the first round of government incentives began to gain traction in the marketplace, the AEB raised its forecast for 2010 car and light commercial vehicle sales to 1.6 million units from 1.5 million. The AEB outlook, which has not been revised, compares with a more enthusiastic forecast by the research firm Morgan Stanley that Russians will buy some 1,824,000 new cars and LCVs this year.

The incentive program, launched in March with 10 billion rubles (about $334.1 million at current rates), offers owners 50,000 rubles (about $1,670) to swap cars that are at least 10 years old for new models built in Russia. The program was extended during the summer with a 10.5 billion ruble (about $350.7 million) cash injection, indicating enough support to trade about 210,000 cars.

It was extended again in early September, when Prime Minister Vladimir Putin committed another 14 billion rubles (about $467.6 million) to extend the program into 2011.


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