Reko od BM Santander 20.30 zł

Wydane dziś i komentarz niestety po Angielsku
Ale myślę zenie sprawi problemów
Equity story. We maintain Outperform rating for Torpol. The decision concerning the retention of record high 2022 profits came in disappointing, as we expected the company to maintain its dividend policy. Nevertheless, we still believe in an appealing equity story for Topol. First, the launch of KPO pre-financing funds (EU Recovery fund) has just materialised, which – as we see it – opened room for signing new large-size contracts. We also cannot exclude that CPK would potentially look for a 100% ownership holding (purchase of 50%+ stake requires announcement of a call tender offer) at the end of the day.  Launch of pre-financing of KPO funds finally materialized. The bridge financing of KPO fund has been finally launched. PKP PLK has recently signed two large size contracts with Torpol and Budimex thanks to the implementation of the pre-financing mechanism. We expect Torpol to potentially sign new deals in the short-to-mid run based on PKP PLK’s declaration to sign a total of 10 contracts with contractors worth PLN4bn by the end of the year.  Backlog gradually raised. Tiny backlog is no longer a risk factor for Torpol, we think. The recent signing of PLN500mn+ railway contract lifted Torpol’s backlog to c. PLN1.6bn based on our estimates, which materially improved the visibility of 2024E-25E sales/profits, we think. We also expect Torpol to continue backlog growth over 2023-24E, as we expect PKP PLK to continue contracts distribution.  Financial forecasts unaltered. We significantly increase 2023E forecasts as we upped gross margin estimate and financial income (thanks to high net cash). We forecast, though, 2023E-24E profits at a level significantly below 2022 level, due to extraordinary high 2022 earnings/margins. We also expect 2023E negative operating CF due to cash consuming contracts execution. Still, we expect CF recovery as of 2024E-25E. We estimate terminal gross margin at the level 6%, which implies net profit forecast at PLN40mn+.  Risks. (1) Any delays in the supply of contracts from PKP PLK/CPK, (2) Any higher than expected NWC utilisation over 2023-24E represents the key downside risk to our CF estimates and valuation of Torpol.  Valuation. We decrease our Target Price to PLN20.3 from PLN22.7 due to changes in financial forecasts and keep the Outperform rating