29/05/2024 – Results 1Q 2024
06/06/2024 – AGM
14/06/2024 – Dividend payout


East Value Research (report 7 May 2024)
– Share price target: PLN 9.62
– Current share price: PLN 4.00 (13 May 2024)
– Upside potential: +140% (increase to 2.4x)

East Value Research (report 7 May 2024)
– Share price target: PLN 9.62
– Current share price: PLN 4.00 (13 May 2024)
– Upside potential: +140% (i.e. 2.4x)


EBITDA:
– €21.6m (full year 2023)
– €25.4m (full year 2024) = +31% yoy


Net income:
– Loss of €23.8m (full year 2023) [includes €38.3m loss on revaluation of assets]
– Profit of €9.42m (full year 2024)


Book value of equity:
– €170.2m (31 December 2022)
– €121.9m (31 December 2023) [after €38.3m loss on revaluation of assets and €27.6m decrease in FX translation reserve]


P/E:
– Earnings per share: € 0.174 = PLN 0.75 (full year 2024)
– Current share price: PLN 4.00
– P/E 5.3x


P/BV
– BV per share: € 2.26 = PLN 9.71 (31 December 2023)
– Current share price: PLN 4.00
– P/BV 0.41x

Discount to book value is very deep now (especially with book value already adjusted down for revaluation and FX reserve).

P/E is very low, if EBITDA seen in EVR's analysis for 2024 is realistic.

So, will 1Q 2024 results match EVR's numbers for 2024 (taken pro-rata)?

If yes, I expect the share price will jump quickly to 5.xx (+25%) then 6.xx (+50%) by the end of June. Further increases would be justified, but might not appear owing to the lack of liquidity in these shares.

What do you think? Am I smoking something?!