Estimating the expected credit loss in the
portfolio of loans and advances to customers
In accordance with International Financial
Reporting Standard 9 "Financial Instruments"
("IFRS 9"), the Management Board is
required to determine the expected credit
loss ("ECL") in the portfolio of loans and
advances to customers that may occur over
either a 12 months period or the remaining
life of an asset, depending on the
classification of individual assets into risk
categories ("stages").
Estimating the level of allowance for credit
losses requires a significant dose of
judgement with regard to the identification of
impairment indicators and significant increase
in credit risk, assessment of the customer's
credit quality, value of collateral and expected
recoveries.
With regard to loans and advances assessed
using statistical methods, there is a risk of
selecting incorrect data for determining model
parameters, the risk of using an incorrect
parameter calculation methodology and the
risk of errors in the impairment calculation
process, in which large amounts of data are
used. The completeness and reliability of the
data used may significantly affect the
accuracy of the modelled estimates.
The Bank's Management monitors the
accuracy of performance of the models by
comparing the results estimated by the
models to the actual credit losses
(backtesting procedures) to ensure that the
level of portfolio provision for loans and
advances is appropriate.
We considered the level of allowances for
expected credit losses in the portfolio of loans
and advances to be a key audit matter due
to:
●
a
significant judgement required by
the Bank's Management when
designing future macroeconomic
scenarios, forecasting
As part of our procedures, we updated our
understanding of the internal control
environment with regard to the recognition and
calculation of expected credit losses. We
tested the effectiveness of selected key
controls implemented by the Bank’s
Management, in particular:
●
procedures regarding implementation
of client data in expected credit loss
calculation;
●
procedures regarding timing and
completeness identification of a
significant increase in credit risk (stage
2) and impairment (stage 3).
As part of the work on statistical models, we
performed the following procedures, for which
we engaged our credit risk modelling
specialists:
●
assessment of whether the
methodology used by the Bank for
estimating credit losses in the portfolio
of loans and advances complies with
the requirements of IFRS 9, in
particular verification of the Bank's
approach to the application of criteria
for identifying significant credit risk,
default definition, probability of default
and loss given default parameters and
forward looking information in
estimating expected credit losses;
●
assessment of the Bank's assumptions
and expert adjustments used in the
model;
●
critical analysis of key judgments and
assumptions, including
macroeconomic scenarios and and the
probability-weights assigned to
particular scenarios;
●
analysis of the stability of the model
and its adaptation to the current
conditions;
●
independent tests of credit risk
parameters.
In addition, we performed the following