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IPF has completed its planned bond exchange with the new bonds holding a coupon of 9.75%. Consequently, there will be a higher interest cost and our EPS forecast for next year falls to 4.2p from 8.2p and for 2022 it falls to 22.9p from 25.6p. All bond holders are being returned 20% of their investment in cash, in full, with the balancing 80% converting to the new bonds. We estimate that IPF now holds substantial excess liquidity and that combined with no material debbt maturities in the near term means IPF holds a very strong liquidity position. Covenants are harmonised and amended and we forecast a CET1 ratio of 37% at the December 2020 year end. Despite the balance sheet and liquidity strength confirmed today, the share price still implies a 76% probability of insolvency, a 2023 PE of just 1.9x.
Current Share Price Target Price
Market Capitalisation Shares In Issue RIC/BLBG
63p 247p £142m 224m IPF.L/IPF LN 1,020,639 Broker Yes
Avg. Daily Volume (3M)
Share Price
200 150 100 50 0
Nov-19
?
The equity story: IPF is a market-leading high margin specialist lender that is able to deliver attractive returns with very low leverage. Its products are internationally transferable and it has operations on 3 continents. Unlike most lenders, customer satisfaction is exceptionally high and the short duration of its loans, combined with the long duration of its funding, eliminate the duration mismatch that is essential to profitability for most large lenders. The group has expanded into digital lending and we believe its capabilities in this area are exceptional. IPF is able to credit profile customers in an entirely digital manner without needing to ask any credit questions (such as how much do you earn) or referencing a credit score, although it does both. The ability to view credit scores and know that a customer is better or worse than that score makes the economic profit IPF generates sustainable. As its data builds, its modelling improves and the gap it holds over its competitors increases. Having operated this business for 15 years, the model has had direct experience of deep recession prior to CV-19. The model works equally well in developed, as well as developing, markets and for that reason we believe it has the potential to become a truly global business. With the model operating profitably with APRs similar to those of the UK clearing banks, regulatory risk is materially lower than it is for the higher APR Home Credit business. We believe IPF Digital is one of the best fintech lending businesses in the world. Despite the material regulatory headwinds IPF has seen, we believe its Home Credit business provides an essential, valuable and inclusive service for its customers. By 2023 we forecast IPF will have returned to be a 20% ROE business, valued at just 0.36x NTA, it will hold a CET1 ratio of 37.4% and have a div. yield of 19.3%, 2.7x covered. - Numis note

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